Nigeria recorded a real GDP growth rate of 3.98% in Q3 2025, and that was higher than 3.86% recorded in Q3 2024. The 2025 real GDP growth data shows a consistent pattern-any quarter in 2025 has a higher real GDP growth rate than the corresponding quarter in 2024. This shows the government was able to coordinate economic activities in 2025 better than what we had in the corresponding quarters of 2024.

Sectors that grew by double digits in Q3’25

The Metal Ores sub sector grew the most in Q3 2025. With an astonishing 59.11% real growth, the sub sector recovered from a -6.96% growth rate in Q2 2025. The Coal Mining sub sector grew by 57.96%, making it the second most impactful sector in Nigeria in the third quarter of 2025.

The Quarrying and Other Minerals sub sector grew by 39.49%, justifying why the Federal Government has put in place measures to coordinate the sub sector. The Rail Transport and Pipelines sub sector also grew by 33.29%. This sub sector holds good prospects as many rail projects are maturing while greenfield projects are being announced. A case in point is the recent announcement by the South West Governors to execute rail projects that will connect all the nooks and crannies of the major communities in the geopolitical zone.

Six other sub sectors produced double digits growth in Q3 2025. Insurance grew by 20.78%, higher than 15.70% in Q2 2025, and 7.08% in Q1 2025. The steady growth in the insurance sub sector could not be separated from the recapitalisation drive within the subsector. Financial institutions sub sector grew by 19.46%, followed by Oil Refining, 19.42%; Water Transport, 15.02% (Q2’ 25: 27.90%), Water Supply, Sewage and Waste Management, 10.26% (Q2’25: 10.60%), and Road Transport, 10.13 %( Q2’25: 24.50%).

Sectors with negative growth rates in Q3’25

Two sub sectors ended the quarters in the negative territory. Textile, Apparel and Footwear sub-sectors grew by negative 2.41% in Q3 2025, and have been recording negative growth rates since Q2 2024. The Pulp, Paper and Paper Products posted -1.07% growth rate in Q3 2025. This reflects a seasonal growth pattern as it recorded a negative growth rate of 3.09% in Q3 2024.

What did Agriculture, Industries, and Services contribute to GDP in Q3 2025?

The services sector maintained its dominance in terms of contribution to the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from the first quarter to the third quarter of 2025. However, there was a gradual reduction in its contribution to GDP, reflecting seasonality in Nigeria’s economic activities. Services contribution to GDP in 2025 reduced from 57.50% in Q1 to 56.53% in Q2, and to 53.02% in Q3.

Agriculture sub sector is next in terms of GDP contribution after services. Capturing the effects of the harvesting season, its contribution rose from 23.33% in Q1 to 26.17% in Q2 and to 31.21% in Q3, 2025. The Industries sector mirrored the services sector. The contribution of the Industries reduced from 19.18% in Q1 to 17.31% in Q2 and to 15.77% in Q3 2025.

The real growth rates by the three broad economic categorisations varied based on quarters. The highest real growth rate of 4.33% was recorded in the services sector in Q1. The highest real growth rate of 7.46% was recorded by the industries sector in Q2, while the highest real growth rate of 4.15% was recorded by the services sector in Q3 2025.

Will Nigeria meet the 2025 real GDP growth projection of 4.6%?

In the 2025 budget assumptions, Nigeria projected a 4.6% real GDP growth rate for this year. With 3.13% real GDP growth rate in Q1, 4.23% in Q2, and 3.98% in Q3, that average 3.78% real growth for the first three quarters of this year. The implication of this is that Nigeria’s Q4 2025 real GDP growth rate must not be less than 7.05% to attain the 4.6% projection for the country.

*The Brook Securities Ltd. is registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and is a Trading License Holder of The Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX). Its registered office is located at 4, Fatai Idowu Arobieke Street, Lekki Phase 1, Lagos, Nigeria.