Despite rise to 34.8% in December, experts see Nigeria’s inflation moderating in 2025

by Oluwatunmise Omoseyin

Nigeria’s headline inflation rose to 34.6 per cent in November 2024, up from 33.88 per cent recorded in October, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday.

The NBS report highlights a worsening inflationary trend, with the November figure marking an increase of 0.72 per cent compared to the previous month. On a year-on-year basis, the current headline inflation rate is 6.40 per cent higher than the 28.2 per cent recorded in November 2023.

The month-on-month headline inflation rate, however, saw a slight decline, standing at 2.638 per cent in November, a 0.002 per cent lower than October’s 2.64 per cent.

Food inflation remained a significant driver of the rising cost of living, surging to 39.93 per cent year-on-year in November 2024 from 32.84 per cent in November 2023.

“The rise in food inflation on a year-on-year basis was caused by increases in prices of the following items: yam, water yam, coco yam (potatoes, yam and other tubers class); guinea corn, maize grains, rice (bread and cereals class); beer and pinto (tobacco class); and palm oil, vegetable oil, etc. (oil and fats class),” NBS stated.

Month-on-month, food inflation rose slightly to 2.98 per cent in November from 2.94 per cent in October. The report attributes this increase to the growing cost of essential food items, including mudfish, dried catfish, sardines, rice, yam flour, millet, corn flour, eggs, powdered milk, fresh milk, dried beef, goat meat, and frozen chicken.

Across the country, food inflation rates varied with Bauchi recording the highest rate at 46.21 per cent, followed by Kebbi at 42.41 per cent, and Anambra at 40.48 per cent.

“The average annual rate of food inflation for the twelve months ending November 2024 over the previous twelve-month average was 38.67%, which was 11.58 percentage points higher compared with the average annual rate of change recorded in November 2023 (27.09%),” the NBS report noted.

The surge in inflation continues to pressure household incomes, raising concerns over the affordability of staple goods. Experts suggest that structural challenges in Nigeria’s agricultural sector, rising import costs, and macroeconomic instability may be contributing to the persistent inflationary trend.

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