by Chuks Oluigbo

Nigeria is projecting a decline in inflation rate to 15 per cent in 2025, from 34.6 per cent currently, and an improvement in the exchange rate from the current rate of approximately N1,700 to N1,500 per dollar.

The country also projects a base crude oil production of 2.06 million barrels per day (mbpd), from about 1.8 million bpd currently.

These projections are contained in the N47.90 trillion 2025 budget estimate presented to lawmakers by President Bola Tinubu on Wednesday.

Nigeria’s inflation rate resumed its upward climb in September 2024, advancing to 32.70 per cent year-on-year, after it eased to 33.40 per cent in July and 32.15 per cent in August from a peak of 34.19 per cent in June. In October 2024, the inflation rate inched higher to 33.88 per cent, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics. The inflation rate quickened to 34.6 per cent in November.

Tinubu, who has embarked on ambitious reforms since assuming office 18 months ago, including scrapping of costly fuel subsidy and abolishing a complex multiple exchange-rate system, said the 2025 budget reinforces his administration’s roadmap to secure peace, prosperity, and hope for a greater future for the country.

The 2025 ‘Budget of Restoration: Securing Peace, Rebuilding Prosperity’ projects a total expenditure of N47.90 trillion, including N15.81 trillion for debt servicing, and a revenue target of N34.82 trillion.

“A total of 13.08 trillion naira, or 3.89 percent of GDP, will make up the budget deficit,” Tinubu said.

Of this budget figure, N4.91 trillion will go to Defence and Security, N4.06 trillion to Infrastructure, N2.48 trillion to Health, while Education will get N3.52 trillion.

These projections, Tinubu said, are based on reduced importation of petroleum products alongside increased export of finished petroleum products, bumper harvests driven by enhanced security, reducing reliance on food imports, increased foreign exchange inflows through Foreign Portfolio Investments, and higher crude oil output and exports, coupled with a substantial reduction in upstream oil and gas production costs.

The 2025 budget, he said, seeks to restore macroeconomic stability, enhance the business environment, foster inclusive growth, employment, and poverty reduction, and promote equitable income distribution and human capital development.

Reflecting on the current economic realities, Tinubu said whereas the global economy was projected to grow at 3.2 per cent in 2024, Nigeria’s economy grew by 3.46 per cent in the third quarter of 2024, up from 2.54 per cent in the third quarter of 2023.

“Our Foreign Reserves now stand at nearly 42 billion US dollars, providing a robust buffer against external shocks.

“Our rising exports are reflected in the current trade surplus, which now stands at 5.8 trillion naira, according to the National Bureau of Statistics,” he said.

The President praised his administration’s “remarkable milestones in implementing the 2024 Budget”, saying the government has achieved “14.55 trillion naira in revenue, meeting 75 percent of our target as of the third quarter” and “21.60 trillion naira in expenditure, representing 85 percent of our target, also in the third quarter”.

He said the transformational effects of improved revenue collection and fulfilment of key obligations on the economy “are gradually being felt”.

He emphasised the place of security, infrastructure development, human capital development, and revitalizing agriculture to the overall progress of the country and its citizens.

“Our people should never live in fear—whether on their farmlands, highways or cities. By restoring peace, we restore productivity, revive businesses, and rebuild our communities,” he said.

Tinubu said his government was accelerating investments in energy, transport, and public works and that the key legacy projects of his administration – the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway and Sokoto-Badagry Highway – would have a huge impact on the lives of Nigerians and accelerate economic output.

He said his administration has so far disbursed N34 billion to over 300,000 students through the Nigeria Education Loan Fund (NELFUND) and has made provision for N826.90 billion for infrastructure development in the educational sector in the 2025 budget.

He said under his government’s Universal Health Coverage initiatives to strengthen primary healthcare systems across the country, N402 billion has been allocated for infrastructure investments in the health sector in the 2025 budget and another N282.65 billion for the Basic Health Care Fund.

He said his government was also focusing on increasing agricultural production in order to achieve food security.

“We are supporting our farmers with funding and inputs to reignite productivity. Food security is non-negotiable. In this regard, we are taking bold steps to ensure that every Nigerian can feed conveniently, and none of our citizens will have to go to bed hungry,” Tinubu said.