Two years after the federal government removed petrol subsidies and floated the naira, the promise of national economic transformation remains unfulfilled for most Nigerians. Instead of relief and recovery, what millions face daily is deepening poverty, skyrocketing prices, and crumbling livelihoods. The hard truth is that the cost of reforms—intended or otherwise—is being borne almost entirely by the poor and vulnerable, with little or no safety net to cushion the fall.
The removal of fuel subsidies was touted as a pathway to economic efficiency, eliminating a bloated and opaque expenditure system. Yet, beyond fiscal savings—estimated at over N7 trillion—the impact on everyday Nigerians has been overwhelmingly negative. Transport costs have tripled, commodity prices are at historic highs, and small businesses are shutting down in droves, unable to survive under rising energy costs and eroded consumer spending.
The currency float has compounded the hardship. The naira’s depreciation has driven up the cost of imports, including fuel, food, and medicines. While the policy may please international institutions and reflect textbook economic logic, the lived reality on the streets is hunger, job losses, and frustration.
Most troubling is the apparent lack of preparedness or planning by the government—at all levels—for the fallout. The so-called palliatives—cash transfers and CNG transport initiatives—have been too little, too late, and in many cases, non-existent. Promises of cleaner, cheaper energy alternatives remain largely theoretical, with limited infrastructure and poor implementation keeping the majority of Nigerians locked in a cycle of rising petrol dependence and hardship.
Yet, as federal allocations to states have soared—rising from N10.14 trillion in 2023 to N15.26 trillion in 2024—there is little evidence that sub-national governments are stepping up to fill the gap. Despite receiving more funds than ever before, many states have failed to invest meaningfully in health, education, agriculture, public transport, or social protection. Basic infrastructure remains dilapidated. Healthcare systems are overstretched. Schools are underfunded. Rural roads are impassable. Social security systems are virtually absent.
What this reveals is a crisis not just of economic policy but of governance. The masses are not suffering merely because reforms were difficult, but because leadership at both the federal and state levels failed to plan, coordinate, and prioritize the needs of the people.
Across the country, communities are asking the same questions: Where are the savings from subsidy removal? Why has the increased revenue not translated into better public services? Why are governments not investing in systems to protect the poor and vulnerable from economic shocks?
Instead of building robust social safety nets, many states continue to rely heavily on FAAC allocations while neglecting internal revenue reforms and long-term investments. The absence of transparency and accountability in how public resources are used has only worsened public mistrust.
It is time to change course. Nigeria’s recovery must begin with deliberate investments in social protection. The country needs a national framework that mandates states to use a portion of their allocations for poverty reduction programmes, rural development, and emergency support for vulnerable households. Conditional cash transfers, school feeding programmes, public works schemes, and subsidized healthcare must be scaled and sustained—not treated as one-off interventions for public relations.
Public transport systems, particularly CNG buses, must be deployed nationwide with urgency, and supported by local refuelling infrastructure to ease pressure on household spending. Local manufacturing and food production must be prioritized through access to credit, land reforms, and security in rural areas.
Furthermore, transparency must be institutionalized at all levels. Citizens must know how much their states receive and how those funds are used. Budget transparency, participatory governance, and civil society oversight must no longer be optional—they must become the norm.
The current economic model is unsustainable. It is neither inclusive nor responsive to the suffering of the majority. If governments continue to focus only on macro indicators—reserves, ratings, GDP rebasing—without addressing the hunger, joblessness, destitution and despair on the ground, then the nation risks even greater instability.
The opportunity to rebuild is not yet lost. But it requires a shift from elite-centred reforms to people-centred recovery. State governments must stop hiding behind federal policies and rise to their constitutional mandate to deliver good governance. The trillions now flowing into public treasuries must begin to reflect in the lives of ordinary Nigerians.
The pain is real. The people are weary. And history will not be kind to leaders who squander both the opportunity and the trust of those they were elected to serve.
*Azor is Chairman, Anambra Civil Society Network (ACSONet) and President, International Peace and Civic Responsibility Centre (IPCRC).
