The proposed population and housing census in Nigeria had generated sufficient angst within the polity to such an extent that it would appear the exercise is no longer worthwhile. Unfortunately, or rather fortunately, it is like an albatross hanging on Nigeria’s neck. As a matter of fact, it is a foregone conclusion that Nigeria must conduct a national population census whether she likes it or not. Nigerians must be counted willy-nilly. This is already aptly captured in the theme of the exercise, ‘You Count, Be Counted’. The last census was conducted in 2006. Ideally, a census should be conducted every 10 years in line with global standards set by the United Nations. But apparently Nigeria’s case is ‘exceptional’ because the exercise is difficult to sustain in an economy that is constantly hemorrhaging. Besides, the entire process requires political will and proclamation by the president of the country in accordance with the constitution. The immediate past president had made the proclamation albeit on the twilight of his administration. The same president postponed his own proclamation; yet the spirit of the census bestrides the nation like a malignant shadow.
The exercise was originally scheduled for March 29 to April 2nd, but later postponed to May 3rd to May 5th in order not to clash with gubernatorial elections at the time. Like a troublesome can kicked down the road, the previous administration further postponed it indefinitely with the new administration now saddled with the responsibility to determine a new date for the exercise. But that is not the preoccupation of this writer for now.
The crux of the matter here is credibility of the census figures at the end of the exercise, which has been the bane of previous headcounts. Population figures are the basis for distributing resources from the centre to sub-national governments. In other words, policy formulation based on inaccurate census figures is bound to produce a dysfunctional outcome, and by extension, a dysfunctional society. This underscores the strategic importance of the next census that is expected to be conducted at the direction of President Ahmed Bola Tinubu.
The old demons that bedevilled previous headcounts must be cast out at all cost, otherwise the exercise would amount to a sheer dissipation of energy and waste of scarce resources. The demons reared their ugly heads as far back as 1921 when the first nation-wide census was conducted. The 1921 census was boycotted by the general public because they thought it would lead to increase in taxes. In Southern Nigeria, the preliminary figures were adjusted upwards before the result of 8.4 million was published. The published figure for Northern Nigeria was 10.4 million. The stage was already set for mutual suspicion and manipulation.
Given the alarming level of insecurity across the length and breadth of the country today, concerns have been raised particularly as to how census enumerators would carry out their functions in those parts of the country under the control of bandits and terrorists; needless to ponder how they would determine whether the terrorists themselves are Nigerians or foreigners. It had been suggested that enumerators might have to bear arms in an event they found themselves in enemy territory! That calls to mind the intrigues that characterized the headcounts of 1931, 1941, and 1963. The 1931 census was bedevilled by tax riots and a locust invasion. That of 1941 could not hold because of Second World War as most of our men were away in foreign lands fighting for their colonial masters.
The headcount of 1952 and 1953 returned a total of 30.4 million, but because this figure was taken as the benchmark for political representation in the country’s parliament in preparation for independence in 1960, the result naturally became a bomb waiting to explode. The population of the Northern Region was 55.4 per cent of the total, that of Eastern Nigeria 23.7 per cent, and that of the Western Region, including Lagos and the Mid-West, 20.9 per cent. This gave Northern Nigeria 174 seats, Eastern Nigeria 73 and Western Nigeria (including Lagos and Mid-West) 65 seats in parliament before independence. Population politicking had begun even before Nigeria was born!
The 1962 census figures were alleged to have been inflated in favour of some regions to the ethno-political disadvantage of other regions. A cancellation and recount was ordered in 1963. The result led to a slight redistribution of power in favour of Western Nigeria. Eastern Nigeria and the Mid-West lost five seats in parliament. This reversal of the 1963 results created ripples across the country until it exploded in the civil war of 1967-70, which devastated much of the South-East and opened the democratic space for further military incursions into the country’s political architecture.
Looking back at these antecedents, it is incumbent on the present administration at the centre and the relevant agencies and stakeholders to ensure that the mistakes of the past are not repeated. This time around, Nigeria must get it right because as the theme of the census says, every Nigerian counts and must therefore be counted accurately in a manner that would engender equality across board, fairness and justice for all the regions and states of the Federation.
*Anthony-Spinks is of the Delta State Public Procurement Commission. He writes from Asaba.
