In the words of Prince Niccolo Machiavelli, the famous 16th century Italian diplomat and philosopher, “All well-governed states and wise princes have taken care not to reduce the nobility to despair, nor the people to discontent.” Put differently, society must be run in a manner that ensures fairness to both the rulers and the masses. This is because where the leadership is insensitive to the suffering of the masses, there will be general discontent which may result in social uprising; and when the leaders are dispirited, there will be general hopelessness. But as it stands today in this country, citizens have lost interest not just in government but in our brand of democracy because the sacred ballot box that embodies the people’s aspirations has been broken into pieces. The true meaning of democratic rule which guarantees freedom and justice for all has been bastardized mainly by decades of too much grammar and little or no action by the high and the low in the society.

With the general feeling of discontent in Nigeria today, resulting from hunger and poverty, fuel and energy crisis, insecurity, corruption, youth unemployment, violence particularly during elections, and despair even among the leadership elite, there have been suggestions that Nigeria is ripe for a revolution. But is a revolution possible in Nigeria, and what type of revolution is it going to be? Is it even necessary in the first place?

From recorded history, not a few revolutions have taken place across the globe at different times and in different nations, with some resulting in positive social transformation and others in outright disintegration of the nations involved.

The Third Agricultural Revolution, or what was commonly referred to as the Green Revolution, took place during the 1950s and 60s which resulted in unprecedented improvements in technologies and innovative tools for growing plants, leading to much greater crop yields and food stability across most of Europe and other parts of the world. Ultimately, this led to a dramatic upsurge in livestock because these plants were also utilized for grazing, thereby boosting livestock production and agro-allied industrial activities.

Here in Nigeria, a number of policies were initiated, aimed at achieving something close to an agricultural revolution. There was Operation Feed the Nation (OFN) programme which kicked off on 21st May 1976 under the military regime of General Olusegun Obasanjo. The programme was launched in order to bring about increased food production in the entire nation through the active involvement and participation of every citizen. The idea was that everybody should own a farm. In other words, farming should become a national culture. There was also Green Revolution (GR), a programme inaugurated by Shehu Shagari in April 1980. The programme was aimed at increasing production of food and raw materials in order to ensure food security and self-sufficiency in basic staples. It was geared towards boosting production of crops, livestock and fish in order to meet home and export needs and to expand and diversify the nation’s foreign exchange earnings. It was envisaged that through production and processing of export crops to complement huge oil earnings at that time, the country would gradually derobe itself of the so-called third world toga. These programmes may have recorded some level of impact, but they never were able to evolve into anything in the semblance of an agricultural revolution that could, for instance, match that of the Chinese or the French whose revolution of 1789 was largely agricultural, or the British agricultural revolution of the 1930s through to the 60s. The gross value of agricultural output in China doubled from 1978 to 1985, and from the 1980s up to 2010 the output value of Chinese agriculture skyrocketed by six-fold. As a matter of fact, by the time the People’s Republic of China was established in 1949, virtually all arable land was under cultivation, irrigation and drainage systems. If all arable land in Nigeria is cultivated with modern technology, when Nigeria coughs, the entire world would freeze. It has been said that the technocrats in Abuja are working on it. That is alright. Textile production which formed a dominant industry during the 18th century Industrial Revolution, providing employment for millions of unemployed persons across Europe, is a shadow of itself today in Nigeria. The technocrats are also working on it in Aso Rock. That is also alright.

Some countries have witnessed a violent kind of revolution which is mostly political. Political revolutions have significant effects on the nation in which they occur, but it is on record that they are not always successful. The main purpose of a political revolution is to drastically recreate the government of a nation to a form that will easily create desired policies for the benefit of citizens. This kind of revolutions are fought against rulers or government officials, and they often end in the death of these individuals. It typically begins among the common people, the lower classes of society who feel oppressed and discontented with the ruling class. The danger here is that the revolution more often throws up greater demons than the demons that were meant to be overthrown. The military coups in Nigeria, though revolutionary in nature, never produced any meaningful progress mainly because the citizens were naïve and initially supportive of the juntas only to be disillusioned after each regime. At the end, they rose up and chased the soldiers back to the barracks. The French Revolution from 1789 to 1799 has similar elements, but because it was people-oriented it was characterized by much more violent uprisings and demonstrations. The royalty and nobility of France were reckless with public treasury, and the burden of their recklessness fell upon the poor citizens. Eventually, the people revolted and established their own form of government known as the National Assembly. It was recorded that in one of its National Conventions, the assembly members arrested King Louis XVI and beheaded him in the French public guillotine. The revolution produced major political and social changes, but ultimately led to much instability due to its failure to address economic issues. It serves as an example of how revolutions must take into account all aspects of society in order to be successful. As Chinua Achebe once said, “You cannot dig a second pit in order to get sand to cover the first one”; otherwise you will end up digging pits for the rest of your life.

From our understanding of the Nigerian character, this kind of violent revolution is certainly not desirable and even if it is contemplated at all, it will fail woefully. At any rate, such an adventure – or misadventure – would definitely assume tribal and ethno-religious dimensions as was evident in the 1966 military coup which some commentators have often likened to a revolution – rightly or wrongly. We know who we are despite our affectations of western culture. Africans are hardly rebellious except when pushed to the wall. The problem is hardship caused by hate. Everywhere you turn, you find blind hate walking the streets. Nobody gives a damn about anybody. It is only in this part of the world that you find a human being almost taking a selfie with an accident victim instead of finding a way to rush him to the nearest hospital. The cat and rat idea where the leadership sees the citizens as their obstacle and the citizens in turn see their leaders as demons is simply pedestal and sounds quite cranky. The irony here is that with all the hate and apathy in the street and everywhere, many would still scream to high heavens that they love Nigeria! How can you love eggs and hate chickens?

The Chinese Revolution of 1949 saw the establishment of a communist party which replaced feudalism with socialism. But even today, the Chinese society still shows relics of its communist past. In India, Gandhi achieved social change and Independence of the country, not through a violent revolution, but through self-sacrifice and peaceful protest. It is recorded in the Holy Book that a certain young man called Jesus Christ of Nazareth saved the world; his strategy was love and compassion, not the sword, even if he was crucified by the same people he sacrificed his life for. The point here is that it is only when people are united in love, peace and harmony towards one another in pursuit of a common objective that true power and social change can emerge from their collective action. So, those calling for a revolution may do well to understand that they themselves may not be as wise and as righteous as they think, and they may not have the capacity to bring about the social change that they desire, assuming the desire is actually genuine.

The way forward therefore is for all Nigerians to unite and repair the broken ballot box called democracy or build a new one in a manner that ensures that both the rulers and the citizens are protected.

*Anthony-Spinks is of the Delta State Public Procurement Commission. He writes from Asaba.